Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.320588 10.718097 12.230214 13.984926 15.962016 18.117565 20.642371
2025-04-20 7.407837 9.319361 11.553760 14.346057 17.728719 21.679754 26.628857
2025-04-27 6.419971 8.556012 11.178677 14.612257 18.962676 24.262482 31.175460
2025-05-04 5.515494 7.748750 10.616087 14.530468 19.692305 26.218444 35.038000
2025-05-11 4.777907 7.034196 10.047591 14.314727 20.140029 27.743723 38.334737
2025-05-18 4.259952 6.545154 9.708271 14.337409 20.855337 29.607057 42.125805
2025-05-25 3.876343 6.193965 9.508556 14.506577 21.742736 31.707887 46.303990
2025-06-01 3.499870 5.807234 9.211991 14.493925 22.344968 33.416768 49.996347
2025-06-08 3.143756 5.410320 8.857262 14.352186 22.726952 34.805875 53.274264
2025-06-15 2.897639 5.158570 8.694066 14.472789 23.483747 36.748307 57.414942
2025-06-22 2.747729 5.046111 8.732826 14.897143 24.710078 39.422944 62.736036
2025-06-29 2.492561 4.730512 8.417875 14.731792 25.001784 40.696246 66.002144
2025-07-06 2.146621 4.227908 7.762004 13.976467 24.329417 40.487347 67.045154
2025-07-13 2.029691 4.121566 7.762440 14.304895 25.417750 43.058950 72.505321
2025-07-20 1.915902 4.008078 7.737864 14.581909 26.425994 45.536603 77.908754
2025-07-27 1.757221 3.793226 7.515354 14.496289 26.813773 47.025860 81.787546
2025-08-03 1.596629 3.557497 7.234162 14.282371 26.961078 48.116506 85.050728
2025-08-10 1.483314 3.404146 7.091456 14.304530 27.512504 49.891275 89.500656
2025-08-17 1.398363 3.300092 7.032482 14.473518 28.326855 52.135855 94.815764
2025-08-24 1.299270 3.155870 6.883568 14.460834 28.808266 53.825628 99.252357
2025-08-31 1.194917 2.989157 6.676115 14.319406 29.040887 55.086545 102.994562
2025-09-07 1.126680 2.895275 6.606956 14.439754 29.760181 57.222173 108.322845
2025-09-14 1.092749 2.876024 6.689068 14.863244 31.069203 60.453357 115.686435